Luck or Class: How Do Real Madrid Keep Winning in the UEFA Champions League?

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Atletico Madrid supporters refer to themselves as “The Cursed Ones.” At this point, their hoodoo seems undeniable. Los Rojiblancos met arch-cross-city rivals Real Madrid in the round of 16 of the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League, and just as happened in four straight seasons in the 2010s, it was Los Blancos who emerged victorious once again.

Real Eliminate Atletico Again

Between 2014 and 2017, the two giants from the Spanish capital met in the greatest club competition on the continent for four consecutive seasons, including two finals. On each occasion, it was the Bernabeu outfit that emerged victorious, and this year was no different. However, no one could have anticipated just how sickening the defeat would be.

After losing the away leg 2-1 despite a spirited display, Atleti knew it was all to play for in the cauldron of the Wanda Metropolitano. Inside 30 seconds, they were ahead on the night and level on aggregate, thanks to Conor Gallagher’s close-range strike. And the scores remained that way right through until a penalty shootout. That’s when the drama began.

With Real leading 2-1 in the shootout, Atleti hitman Julian Alvarez stepped up with a chance to level the scores. The Argentinian did exactly that, driving the ball into the roof of the net and heading back toward his teammates on the halfway line.

Then, VAR detected that as Alvarez slipped when taking his spot kick, he unintentionally kicked the ball twice – firstly with his sliding left foot and then correctly with his right – prompting the referee to declare the penalty was missed, handing Real the advantage. That decision was made in all of ten seconds, even though replays shown on television and social media remain inconclusive some 24 hours later.

But it didn’t bother the reigning champions one bit. Both Lucas Vasquez and Marcos Llorente missed, handing Antonio Rudiger the opportunity to send his side through with Real’s fifth and final penalty. Despite goalkeeper Jan Oblak getting more than a hand to the spot kick, he couldn’t keep it out, and Los Blancos duly powered on toward a whopping 16th crown.

After the game, Diego Simeone was livid, but again, Real couldn’t care less, and the sports gambling bookies have duly slashed odds on them claiming the title once again. The latest sports gambling at Bovada odds make Real Madrid a +350 third favorite for glory, narrowly behind Barcelona and Paris Saint-Germain. But if their seemingly fated runs of years gone by are anything to learn from, we certainly won’t be betting against them.

Real Madrid’s Champions League Love Affair

Los Blancos claimed nine Champions League crowns before 2002, including the first five editions of the tournament on the spin. The wait for La Decima became somewhat of a curse, suffering one disappointing defeat after another, encapsulating the 12 years following that ninth triumph in Glasgow. However, ever since breaking the jinx in Lisbon in 2014, everything has gone Real’s way on the continental stage.

In 2016, Zinedine Zidane’s side handed more penalty shootout heartbreak to their rivals in the capital, winning in Milan after Atletico Madrid defender Juanfran hit the post with his spot kick. The following year, a controversial last-gasp penalty shootout was awarded by referee Michael Oliver in a quarterfinal against Juventus in the Bernabeu. Cristiano Ronaldo duly swept home, and Real powered on to the trophy once more, thanks to further wins against Bayern Munich and Liverpool.

But if there was an element of luck or perhaps something more sinister taking place on those occasions, then in 2022, it was one act after another by the footballing gods. In the second round, they found themselves 2-0 down on aggregate with less than 30 minutes remaining in their two-legged tie against Paris Saint-Germain. Karim Benzema then somehow blasted a quickfire hat trick.

In the quarterfinals, they beat Chelsea 3-1 in the first leg in London but then trailed 3-0 in the second leg in the Bernabeu. The Premier League outfit missed a whole host of chances to put the game to bed, and they would ultimately rue them. Rodrygo leveled the tie on aggregate in the 80th minute before Benzema slotted home a penalty in extra time to get the victory.

Perhaps the biggest stunner came in the semifinals. Trailing Manchester City by two goals heading into injury time in the second leg, Real somehow found a way to come out victorious. Two goals in 60 seconds from Rodrygo sent the contest into extra time, and once more, Benzema was on hand to find the winner in the additional period.

Then, in the final, a higher power was at play once more. Liverpool absolutely peppered Los Blancos for a full 90 minutes in Paris. They couldn’t find a way past the brick wall of Thibaut Courtois, though, and that allowed Vinicius Junior to slot home on the hour mark against the run of play. That was the only goal of the game, and Los Blancos had somehow won the title once again.

Whether it’s luck, quality, or something higher than all of us, we will never know. But whatever it is, fortune certainly seems to favor the Galacticos on the grandest stage.

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